Monday, October 28, 2013

Supply Outlook for Natural Gas - A guest post by John Miller



The session I watched was the 2011 Session # “Supply Outlook for Natural Gas”.  This session discussed the current and forecasted growth of natural gas (NG) relative to that of current and competing fuels such as coal and shale gas. 
            In watching this session, I discovered that coal, despite its perception of falling by the wayside to NG, is actually the current driver for coal to gas conversion as it we have an overabundance in the U.S. of coal that is stockpiled and “has to be” consumed.  Also, with coal and NG have such similar market prices and a likely overstock of coal as coal-to-NG power plants come online due to EPA regulations, the industry is looking to export coal overseas, where it can fetch even greater returns than are currently found stateside. 
            One of the questions that came to mind from watching this was what is the scalability and reliability of NG.  Despite its abundance, there is still a problem of “wet” gas which is NG that freezes within pipes and is not available to consumer.  Beyond this, the outlook for NG exporting was high as well, although current market understanding relates the volatility and initial costs to compress and then safely ship NG overseas. 
        In looking at the particulars of liquefying NG, I discovered that the gas needs to be cooled to -260 degrees Farhenheit, which reduces gas down to a liquid that is 1/600th the volume of when it is in its gaseous state. I also realized that, not only does a producing nation need to have a liquification facility, but the receiving nation needs to have a receiving terminal along with a regasification facility, which can lead to long-term infrastructure creation and costs (Natgas.info).
            The take home message is that while NG appears to be pushing coal out of the U.S. market, there are still hurdle to surmount and opportunity for coal prior to that completely taking place.

Natgas.info. Liquefied Natural Gas Chain. Natgas.info. http://www.natgas.info/html/liquefiednaturalgaschain.html (accessed 10/21/13).

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